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Cardiovascular

CVD risk assessment and management

Last revised in July 2025

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity, accounting for almost a third of all deaths in the UK.

CVD risk assessment and management: Summary

  • Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is an umbrella term which describes a range of conditions affecting the heart, blood vessels, or both. It is caused by thrombosis or atherosclerosis.
  • CVD is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity, accounting for almost a quarter of all deaths in the UK.
    • In 2021, CVD caused 21% of premature deaths (deaths in people under the age of 75 years).
  • Various risk factors increase a person's risk of developing CVD.
    • Non-modifiable risk factors include older age, being male, a family history of CVD, and ethnic background (for example, people of South Asian origin have an increased risk of CVD compared with people of European origin).
    • Modifiable risk factors include smoking, high blood level of non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol, lack of physical activity, unhealthy diet, alcohol intake above recommended levels, overweight and obesity.
    • Comorbidities that can increase the risk of developing CVD include: hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, dyslipidaemia, rheumatoid arthritis, influenza, serious mental health problems, and periodontitis.
  • The Health Check Programme is now established in England:
    • Everyone aged 40–74 years, who has not already been diagnosed with CVD, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease, is invited every 5 years for a free health check.
    • The health check includes a CVD risk assessment, an assessment of alcohol consumption, physical activity, cholesterol level, body mass index (BMI), an assessment for dementia in those aged 65-74 years, and screening for diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease in those at increased risk of developing these conditions. 
  • A person's 10-year CVD risk should be assessed using the QRISK assessment tool every 5 years (except for people who have established CVD or are at high risk of developing it or people aged 85 years and over).
    • People with type 1 diabetes mellitus or chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3, 4, or 5 are considered at high risk, and so a CVD risk assessment is not required. However, it may help some people with these conditions to make an informed choice on whether to take a statin.
    • The calculated CVD risk is an estimate. Clinical judgment is required to adjust for factors that the risk calculator does not account for.
  • Most people will be able to reduce whatever risk they have by relevant changes in lifestyle, optimizing treatment of relevant comorbidities, and drug treatment, if appropriate.
  • All people who have had a CVD risk assessment should be given lifestyle advice, regardless of their risk score. This should include advice about:
    • Smoking cessation.
    • Weight loss if overweight or obese.
    • Eating a healthy diet.
    • Keeping alcohol consumption within the recommended limits.
    • Being physically active.
  • Statin treatment should be offered for the primary prevention of CVD to people with an estimated 10-year CVD risk of 10% or more if lifestyle interventions have not proved effective.
  • Atorvastatin 20 mg a day is the recommended statin if the person decides to take drug treatment after an informed discussion about benefits and harms, after having been provided with lifestyle advice, and if there are no contraindications.

Have I got the right topic?

From age 18 years onwards.

This CKS topic covers clinical (but not public health) strategies for reducing the risk of developing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). It includes the assessment of CVD risk and the approach to managing CVD risk.

This CKS topic does not cover cardiovascular risk assessment in people with chronic kidney disease, dyslipidaemias or type 1 diabetes mellitus.

This CKS topic covers primary prevention only and does not cover secondary prevention of further cardiovascular events in people who already have a CVD.

There are separate CKS topics on Alcohol - problem drinking, Angina, Antiplatelet treatment, Atrial fibrillation, Chronic kidney disease, Diabetes - type 2, Heart failure - chronic, Hypercholesterolaemia - familial, Hypertension, Lipid modification - CVD prevention, MI - secondary prevention, Obesity, Smoking cessation, and Stroke and TIA.

The target audience for this CKS topic is healthcare professionals working within the NHS in the UK, and providing first contact or primary healthcare.

How up-to-date is this topic?

Changes

July 2025 — minor update. Quality statements updated in line with the updated NICE quality standard Cardiovascular risk assessment and lipid modification.

Previous changes

May 2025 — minor update. QOF indicators updated in line with the NHS England Quality and Outcomes Framework guidance for 2025/26.

March 2025 — minor update. Added information about the use of aspirin for people in higher at risk groups as an off-license indication. 

September 2024 — minor update. Recommendations on physical activity have been clarified.  

May 2024 — reviewed.  A literature search was conducted in March 2024 to identify evidence-based guidelines, UK policy, systematic reviews, and key randomized controlled trials published since the last revision of the topic. Minor structural changes have been applied to the topic, with the basis for recommendation sections updated to align with current guidance from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) on Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines on Cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice.

May 2023 — minor update. Recommendations aligned with updated NICE guideline Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification.

February 2023 — minor update. The information that aspirin is not recommended for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been reworded to align with the updated NICE guideline Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification, which recommends that it should not be routinely offered for primary prevention of CVD.

August 2020 — minor update. Broken URL link updated.

February to March 2019 — reviewed. A literature search was conducted in February 2019 to identify evidence-based guidelines, UK policy, systematic reviews, and key randomized controlled trials published since the last revision of this topic. The recommendations have been updated to take into account the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Surveillance report 2018 – Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification (2014) NICE guideline CG181, and a prospective cohort study which updated and validated a new version of the QRISK tool: QRISK3. 

June to September 2014 — reviewed and re-written with a new topic structure. A literature search was conducted in June 2014 to identify evidence-based guidelines, UK policy, systematic reviews, and key randomized controlled trials published since the last revision of this topic. The main significant changes made to this topic reflect the recommendations from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the guideline Lipid modification: Cardiovascular risk assessment and the modification of blood lipids for the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease  and includes the following:

  • A 10 year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk should be assessed using the QRISK2 assessment tool (and not the Framingham tool).
  • Statin treatment is an option for the primary prevention of CVD for people with an estimated 10 year CVD risk of 10% or more.
  • Atorvastatin 20 mg a day is the recommended statin if the person decides to take drug treatment after an informed discussion about benefits and harms, and if there are no contraindications.

December 2013 — minor update. Text has been removed from the section on antiplatelet treatment and links added to the updated CKS topic on antiplatelet treatment.

June 2013 — minor update. The 2013 QOF options for local implementation have been added to this topic.

April 2012 — minor update. The 2012/2013 QOF indicators have been added to this topic. Minor text change to recommendations on how to interpret cardiovascular risk in people with diabetes. Updated to include the recommendation from the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee that people should have at least two alcohol-free days per week. 

September 2011 — minor update. Rewording of unclear recommendation in the CVD risk assessment scenario. 

July 2011 — minor update. Formatting change to section on CVD risk calculators.

June 2011 — minor update. The 2011/2012 QOF indicators have been added to this topic. 

February 2011 — topic structure revised to ensure consistency across CKS topics — no changes to clinical recommendations have been made.

December 2010 — minor update. The Basis for recommendation section on CVD risk calculators has been updated to include new supporting evidence for ASSIGN cardiovascular risk calculator and the QRISK cardiovascular lifetime risk calculator. 

July 2010 — minor update. Polycythaemia vera added to the list of indications for low-dose aspirin.

April 2010 — updated to include advice about the QRISK2 and the ASSIGN cardiovascular risk calculators. Advice from SIGN that aspirin is no longer recommended for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in people with diabetes has also been included. 

December 2009 — minor update. The recommendations on when to consider for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease have been updated. 

October 2009 — minor update. A reminder from the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) that aspirin is not licensed for use in primary prevention of vascular events has been added.

May 2009 — updated to include indicators related to primary and secondary prevention of coronary heart disease in the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) of the General Medical Services (GMS) contract in the Goals and outcome measures section. 

February 2009 — minor typographical correction. 

July to December 2008 — converted from CKS guidance to CKS topic structure. The evidence-base has been reviewed in detail, and recommendations are more clearly justified and transparently linked to the supporting evidence.

This topic has been updated to reflect the NICE guideline Lipid modification: cardiovascular risk assessment and the modification of blood lipids for the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Changes to the recommendations on risk assessment include:

  • Using a systematic method to prioritize people for formal risk assessment (rather than opportunistic screening).
  • Adjusting calculated risk to take into account risk factors not included in risk calculators:
    • Ethnic background. Previously it was recommended that the calculated risk be multiplied by 1.4 for people originating from the Indian subcontinent. Now it is recommended that the risk be adjusted for men (but not for women).
    • Premature cardiovascular disease in a first-degree relative. Previously it was recommended that the calculated risk be multiplied by 1.3 when there is a family history of premature cardiovascular disease. Now it is recommended that the calculated risk be multiplied by 1.5 when one family member is affected, and by up to 2 when more than one first-degree relative has had premature cardiovascular disease.
    • Adiposity. More emphasis (for routine primary care) is now placed on taking account of severe obesity (body mass index > 40 kg/m2), and less emphasis on central obesity and the measurement of waist circumference.
    • Comorbidity and treatments. Some comorbidities (such as diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, and chronic kidney disease) and treatments (e.g. for HIV or with antipsychotics) can increase the risk of cardiovascular disease. Optimal management of these conditions is now specifically recommended to reduce this risk.
    • Age 75 years or older. It is now recommended that people be regarded as at high risk of cardiovascular disease once they reach the age of 75 years, and that formal risk calculation is not necessary.
  • Using a risk calculator and not using risk charts to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease. Previously it was recommended that risk charts or a risk calculator could be used.

There are no substantive changes to recommendations on lifestyle interventions to reduce cardiovascular risk. There are no substantive changes to recommendations on antiplatelet treatment or antihypertensive treatment. Changes to the recommendations for lipid modification include:

  • For primary prevention: to offer to treat with simvastatin 40 mg/day (or a suitable alternative). No targets for treatment are recommended.
  • For secondary prevention: to offer to start treatment with simvastatin 40 mg/day (or a suitable alternative). If serum total cholesterol remains above 4 mmol/L or low density lipoprotein cholesterol remains above 2.0 mmol/L, consider increasing to simvastatin 80 mg (or a suitable alternative).

November 2008 — minor correction to hyperlinks to the cardiovascular risk charts and calculators provided by the British Hypertension Society.

April to June 2006 — reviewed. This guidance has been rewritten following a full literature review and to take account of JBS 2, the second Joint British Societies' guidelines on prevention of cardiovascular disease in clinical practice. The guidance title has changed from Coronary heart disease — identification and management to Cardiovascular risk — assessment and management to reflect the wider aims of current prevention guidelines. Risk assessment is now based on 10-year cardiovascular disease risk using the JBS 2 charts or calculator — previously, risk calculation was based on coronary heart disease risk. Indications for professionally supported lifestyle interventions and drug treatments and suggested targets for treatment have been updated. There is new information about lifestyle interventions and new sections with suggestions on how to help people change to healthier lifestyles, and how to communicate risk and uncertainty. Validated in September 2006 and issued in October 2006. 

November 2005 — minor update. Reference made to the CKS topic on Antiplatelet treatment, which outlines gastrointestinal issues that need to be considered in the prescribing of low-dose aspirin for the prevention of cardiovascular events.

September 2004 — updated to include the circumstances where simvastatin can be purchased over the counter from a pharmacy. 

March 2003 — written. Validated in June 2003 and issued in July 2003.

Update

New evidence

Evidence-based guidelines

  • De Backer, J., Haugaa, K.H., Eide Hasselberg, N., (2025) ESC Guidelines for the management of cardiovascular disease and pregnancy: Developed by the task force on the management of cardiovascular disease and pregnancy of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC). European Heart Journal https://academic.oup.com [Free Full-text]
  • Damman K, Ter Maaten JM, Mayne KJ, et al (2026) 2026 ESC Guidelines for the management of cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease, in collaboration with the European Renal Association (ERA). European Heart Journal. https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj [Free Full-text]

HTAs (Health Technology Assessments)

  • NICE (2026) Semaglutide for reducing the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in people with cardiovascular disease and overweight or obesity. National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. [Free Full-text]

Economic appraisals

No new economic appraisals since 1 May 2024.

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses

No new systematic reviews or meta-analysis which reach the CKS threshold for inclusion since 1 May 2024.

Primary evidence

No new primary evidence which reaches the CKS threshold for inclusion published since 1 May 2024.

New policies

No new policies since 1 May 2024.

New safety alerts

No new safety alerts since 1 May 2024.

Changes in product availability

No changes in product availability since 1 May 2024.

Goals and outcome measures

Goals

To support primary healthcare professionals to: 

  • Reduce the risk of developing cardiovascular disease, which includes:
    • Coronary heart disease (including angina and myocardial infarction).
    • Stroke and transient ischaemic attack.
    • Peripheral arterial disease.
  • Improve quality of life.
  • Improve life expectancy.

Outcome measures

No outcome measures were found during the review of this topic.

Audit criteria

No audit criteria were found during the review of this topic.

QOF indicators

Table 1. Indicators related to primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or CVD risk assessment and management in the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) guidance for 2025–2026.

IndicatorPointsPayment stages
CHD005 The percentage of patients with coronary heart disease with a record in the preceding 12 months that aspirin, an alternative anti-platelet therapy, or an anti-coagulant is being taken756-96%
CHD015 The percentage of patients aged 79 years or under, with coronary heart disease, in whom the last blood pressure reading (measured in the preceding 12 months) is 140/90 mmHg or less (or equivalent home blood pressure reading)3340-90%
CHD016 The percentage of patients aged 80 years or over, with coronary heart disease, in whom the last blood pressure reading (measured in the preceding 12 months) is 150/90 mmHg or less (or equivalent home blood pressure reading)1446-90%
CHOL003 The percentage of patients on the QOF Coronary Heart Disease, Peripheral Arterial Disease, Stroke/TIA or Chronic Kidney Disease Register who are currently prescribed a statin, or where a statin is declined or clinically unsuitable, another lipid-lowering therapy3870-95%
CHOL004 Percentage of patients on the QOF Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), Peripheral Arterial Disease (PAD), or Stroke/Transient Ischaemic Attack (TIA) Register, with the most recent cholesterol measurement in the preceding 12 months, showing as ≤ 2.0 mmol/L if it was an LDL (Low-density Lipoprotein) cholesterol reading or ≤ 2.6 mmol/L if it was a non-HDL (Highdensity Lipoprotein) cholesterol reading. For multiple readings on the latest date the LDL reading takes priority4420-50%
DM034 The percentage of patients with diabetes aged 40 years and over, with no history of cardiovascular disease and without moderate or severe frailty, who are currently treated with a statin (excluding patients with type 2 diabetes and a CVD risk score of <10% recorded in the preceding 3 years) or where a statin is declined or if clinically unsuitable, another lipid-lowering therapy450-90%
DM035 The percentage of patients with diabetes and a history of cardiovascular disease (excluding haemorrhagic stroke) who are currently treated with a statin or where a statin is declined or if clinically unsuitable, another lipid-lowering therapy250-90%
DM036 The percentage of patients with diabetes, on the register aged 79 years and under, without moderate or severe frailty in whom the last blood pressure reading (measured in the preceding 12 months) is 140/90 mmHg or less (or equivalent home blood pressure reading)2738-90%
BP002 The percentage of patients aged 45 or over who have a record of blood pressure in the preceding 5 years1550-90%
HYP008 The percentage of patients aged 79 years or under with hypertension in whom the last blood pressure reading (measured in the preceding 12 months) is 140/90 mmHg or less (or equivalent home blood pressure reading)3840-85%
HYP009 The percentage of patients aged 80 years or over with hypertension in whom the last blood pressure reading (measured in the preceding 12 months) is 150/90 mmHg or less (or equivalent home blood pressure reading)1440-85%
SMOK002 The percentage of patients with any or any combination of the following conditions: CHD, PAD, stroke or TIA, hypertension, diabetes, COPD, CKD, asthma, schizophrenia, bipolar affective disorder or other psychoses whose notes record smoking status in the preceding 12 months2550-90%
SMOK004 The percentage of patients aged 15 or over who are recorded as current smokers who have a record of an offer of support and treatment within the preceding 12 months1240-90%
Data from: [NHS England, 2025]

QIPP - Options for local implementation

No QIPP indicators were found during the review of this topic.

NICE quality standards

Cardiovascular risk assessment and lipid modification

  • General practices use a systematic strategy to identify adults likely to be at high risk of cardiovascular disease.
  • Adults with a 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease of 10% or more receive tailored advice on diet and lifestyle changes within 3 months of their cardiovascular disease risk assessment score being recorded.
  • Adults with a 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease of 10% or more are prescribed a high-intensity statin or other lipid-lowering treatment if a high-intensity statin is contraindicated or not tolerated.
  • Adults starting or changing lipid-lowering treatment have a full lipid profile and their liver transaminases measured at 2 to 3 months.
  • Adults with cardiovascular disease have a low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol level of 2.0 mmol per litre or less, or a non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL) cholesterol level of 2.6 mmol per litre or less. 

[NICE, 2025]

Background information

What is CVD?

  • Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is an umbrella term describing a range of conditions that affect the heart, blood vessels, or both. It is caused by thrombosis or atherosclerosis.
  • Atherosclerosis is a condition where there is an accumulation of fatty deposits (plaques) inside an artery that cause the artery to harden and narrow, restricting blood flow. 
    • Cardiovascular conditions caused by atherosclerosis include: 
      • Coronary heart disease (including angina and myocardial infarction).
      • Stroke.
      • Transient ischaemic attack (TIA).
      • Peripheral arterial disease.
      • Aortic disease.

[SIGN, 2017; NICE, 2023a]

What is the impact of CVD?

  • It is estimated that more than 7.6 million people in the UK have cardiovascular disease (CVD).
  • CVD is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity, accounting for a quarter of all deaths in the UK.  However, annual death rates from CVD have fallen considerably in the UK since the late 1960s. In 1969, the age-standardised death rate per 100,000 from CVD was 1,045 — this has fallen to 202 in 2021.
  • Mortality from CVD
    • Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading global cause of death, with an estimated 18 million deaths each year (over 30% of all global deaths).
    • In 2022, around 175,000 people in the UK died from CVD, accounting for about 27% of all deaths — the second most common cause of death after dementia and Alzheimer's disease. Of these:
      • Coronary heart disease (CHD) was the single most common cause, resulting in the deaths of 12.5% of men and 7% of women — a total of about 68,000 deaths.
      • It is estimated that CVD is responsible for about 25% of deaths in people under the age of 75 years (premature death) in the UK, and that men are twice as likely to die from CVD than women.
      • See Table 1 for details of 2021 mortality figures comparing CVD and all-cause mortality.
    • CVD death rates vary with age (increase with increasing age), gender (more common in men), time of year (an excess of winter deaths), and also by: 
      • Socioeconomic status — premature death from CVD is approximately twice as high among people in the most deprived communities compared to those that live in the most affluent.
      • Geographic location — within the UK in 2022, the highest rates of premature death due to CVD were in the north of England, central Scotland and the south of Wales, with the lowest in the south of England.
  • Morbidity from CVD 
    • Incidence — the British Heart Foundation (BHF) estimates that each year: 
      • There are over 100,000 hospital admissions due to myocardial infarction (MI). 
      • Over 100,000 people in the UK have a stroke.
    • Prevalence — the BHF estimates that: 
      • About 2.3 million people in the UK are living with CHD.
      • About 1.4 million people living in the UK have survived an MI.
      • About 1.4 million people living in the UK have survived a stroke.
  • Financial burden of cardiovascular disease
    • The BHF estimates the annual CVD-related costs to the UK healthcare system at about £10 billion, with annual costs to the UK economy of about £25 billion. 

Table 1. Mortality figures in the UK in 2021.

 Deaths - all agesDeaths under 75 years of age
 MenWomenTotalMenWomenTotal
All causes338,625328,854667,479133,42690,063223,489
CVD deaths*88,413 (26%)79,617 (24%)168,030 (25%)32,684 (24%)15,272 (17%)47,956 (21%)
CHD deaths†42,434 (13%)23,145 (7%)65,579 (10%)19,129 (14%)6,172 (7%)25,301 (11%)
Stroke deaths14,959 (6%)18,755 (6%)33,714 (5%)4,481 (3%)3,386 (4%)7,867 (4%)
* CVD — cardiovascular disease † CHD — coronary heart disease
Data adapted from: [BHF, 2023]

[PHE, 2020; BHF, 2021; BHF, 2023; NICE, 2023a; ONS, 2023; BHF, 2024; Rough, 2024]

What are the risk factors?

  • The underlying cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is plaques of atheroma that form in the walls of blood vessels. Many risk factors increase the likelihood of forming atheroma and its rate of development. Risk factors can be considered either modifiable or non-modifiable. However, some risk factors (such as comorbidities) do not fit this classification.
  • Non-modifiable risk factors include: 
    • Age — CVD is strongly age-dependent, primarily affecting people aged over 50 years. The older a person is, the greater the risk of developing CVD. 
    • Gender — at all ages, men have a higher risk of CVD than women and, on average, develop CVD about 10 years earlier. However, women with CVD may experience worse outcomes than men with CVD.
    • Family history of CVD — this may reflect a shared environment, genetic factors, or both. A positive family history of premature CVD death is associated with an increased risk of early and lifetime CVD. 
    • Ethnic background — for example, people of South Asian or sub-Saharan African origin have an increased risk of CVD, while people of South American or Chinese origin have a lower risk compared with people of European origin. 
  • Modifiable risk factors include: 
    • Smoking. 
    • Low blood level of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. 
    • High blood level of non-HDL cholesterol. 
    • Sedentary lifestyle/lack of physical activity. 
    • Unhealthy diet. 
    • Alcohol intake above recommended levels.
    • Overweight and obesity. 
  • Comorbidities that can increase the risk of developing CVD include:
    • Hypertension. 
    • Diabetes mellitus (and pre-diabetes/metabolic syndrome).
    • Chronic kidney disease.
    • Dyslipidaemia (familial and non-familial).
      • Note: some drugs can also cause dyslipidemia, such as some antipsychotics, immunosuppressants, and corticosteroids.
    • Atrial fibrillation.
    • Rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and other systemic inflammatory disorders.
    • Influenza.
    • Serious mental health problems (schizophrenia, post-traumatic stress disorder) — anxiety is an independent risk factor for coronary artery disease (CAD).
    • Periodontitis.
    • History of premature menopause (<40 years old), polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) or pregnancy-associated conditions that increase later ASCVD risk, such as preeclampsia.
  • Other factors to consider 
    • Socioeconomic status — death from CVD is three times higher among people who live in the most deprived communities compared to those who live in the most affluent.
    • Lack of social support — people who are isolated or disconnected from others are at increased risk of developing and dying prematurely from coronary artery disease (CAD). A lack of social support increases CAD risk and worsens the prognosis of CAD. 

[SIGN, 2017; Arnett, 2019; Geraghty, 2021; ESC, 2022; Wong, 2022; Mehta, 2023; NICE, 2023a]

What are the strategies for CVD prevention?

  • Strategies to prevent the development or worsening of cardiovascular disease (CVD) can be divided into primary prevention (aimed at individuals), secondary prevention (aimed at individuals), and population-based interventions.
  • Primary prevention of CVD
    • People at high risk of developing CVD have the most to gain from risk factor modification.
    • The aim of the NHS Health Check programme in England is to identify people at high risk of CVD:
      • Everyone aged 40–74 years who has not already been diagnosed with CVD, diabetes mellitus, or chronic kidney disease is invited once every 5 years for a free health check.
      • The health check includes a CVD risk assessment, an assessment of alcohol consumption, physical activity, cholesterol level, body mass index (BMI), an assessment for dementia in those aged 65-74 years, and screening for diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease in those at increased risk of developing these conditions.
      • Support and advice to help reduce identified risk factors are included in the health check.
  • Secondary prevention of CVD
  • Population–based strategies to prevent CVD
    • Population–based strategies have the potential to provide large societal health gains because most cardiovascular deaths occur in people who are not at a high risk. Although many people have a low or moderate risk of developing CVD, because the population is large, a small change in average risk can potentially prevent many cases of CVD.
      • These strategies may seek to influence diet, alcohol consumption, smoking and exercise, for example.
    • Population–based strategies for the prevention of CVD are not discussed further in this topic.

[PHE, 2019; Arnett, 2019; ESC, 2022; OHID, 2022; NICE, 2023a]

Management

Scenario: Assessing cardiovascular risk

From age 18 years onwards.

How should I identify people who may benefit from a CVD risk assessment?

  • Do not use opportunistic assessment as the main strategy in primary care to identify cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in unselected people.
  • For the primary prevention of CVD in primary care: 
    • Use a systematic strategy to identify people who are likely to be at high risk.
    • Prioritise people on the basis of an estimate of their CVD risk before a full formal risk assessment — estimate their CVD risk using CVD risk factors already recorded in primary care electronic medical records.
      • Prioritise people for a full formal risk assessment if their estimated 10-year risk of CVD is 10% or more.
    • People aged over 40 years should have their estimate of CVD risk reviewed on an ongoing basis.
      • In England all people aged 40–74 years are offered an NHS Health Check every 5 years, which includes an assessment of CVD risk.
  • Encourage the participation of people who have been identified for CVD risk assessment by:
    • Discussing what they know about their CVD risk. 
    • Exploring their attitudes and confidence towards altering aspects of their lifestyle to benefit future health.
    • Informing them about potential future management options and how this will involve developing a shared management plan.

Basis for recommendation

These recommendations are based on the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification [NICE, 2023a], and Public Health England (PHE) NHS Health Check best practice guidance [PHE, 2020].

How should I perform a CVD risk assessment?

  • Discuss the process of risk assessment with the person, including the option of declining a formal assessment.
  • Use the QRISK3 assessment tool to calculate the estimated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk within the next 10 years for people aged 25 to 84 years (including people with type 2 diabetes) if the person is in agreement with the assessment. 
  • Do not use QRISK assessment tool in people: 
    • Who already have CVD — for more information, see the CKS topics on Angina, MI - secondary prevention, Peripheral arterial disease, and Stroke and TIA.
    • Who are at high risk of developing CVD, including people with: 
      • Type 1 diabetes.
      • An estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 ml/min/1.73m2, or albuminuria.
      • Familial hypercholesterolaemia, or other inherited disorders of lipid metabolism — for more information, see the CKS topic on Hypercholesterolaemia - familial.
    • Aged 85 years or over — consider these people to be at high risk of developing CVD because of age alone, especially smokers and people with high blood pressure.
  • To fill in the QRISK assessment tool, complete as many fields as possible, including:
    • Personal details — age, sex, ethnicity, postcode.
    • Clinical information — smoking status, selected medical and family history, systolic blood pressure and standard deviation of at least two most recent systolic blood pressure readings, height and weight, and the total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol ratio from a non-fasting blood sample.
  • Consider also taking blood to assess HbA1c and kidney function. This is not needed for CVD risk assessment but is offered to people at increased risk of developing diabetes or chronic kidney disease as part of a general health check.
  • Repeat the assessment every five years, but earlier if any significant changes occur in the family history or knowledge of the family history.

Basis for recommendation

These recommendations are based on the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification [NICE, 2023a], Public Health England NHS Health Check best practice guidance [PHE, 2020], the Office for Health Improvement & Disparities guidance NHS Health Checks: applying All Our Health [OHI&D, 2022], the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network guideline (SIGN) Risk estimation and the prevention of cardiovascular disease [SIGN, 2017], and a prospective open cohort study Development and validation of QRISK3 risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study [Hippisley-Cox, 2017]. 

CVD risk prediction models
  • NICE guidance recommends the use of the QRISK3  tool to calculate the estimated CVD risk within the next 10 years [NICE, 2023a].
  • As most CVD risk prediction models have been formed and validated using data from populations mostly in developed countries, there are concerns that CVD risk calculation tools may be at risk of both over- and underestimation of risk for some population groups [Farzadfar, 2019].
    • As demonstrated in the evidence review for the NICE guideline, calibration of the QRISK3 prediction tool was considered excellent in both men and women overall, although a progressive over-prediction of CVD risk was observed with increasing age in both sexes, and at higher levels of predicted CVD risk in women [NICE, 2023a].
    • A scoping review of studies evaluating the accuracy of CVD risk calculators demonstrated that the QRISK tool has been found to be the most accurate CVD risk calculator for several study populations [Badawy, 2022].
    • The NICE guideline development committee acknowledged that the NHS Health Check best practice guidance recommends gender, as reported by the person being assessed, should be recorded, and where a person discloses gender reassignment, they should be provided with CVD risk calculations based on both sexes [PHE, 2020; NICE, 2023a].
    • The results of both risk estimates should be discussed, with emphasis on which calculation is most appropriate for them as an individual [NICE, 2023a] Expert reviewers of this topic recommend that the highest calculated risk should be used to discuss 10 year CVD risk.
Assessing CVD risk every 5 years
  • Cardiovascular risk assessment should be offered at least once every five years in adults over the age of 40 years with no history of CVD, familial hypercholesterolaemia, CKD or diabetes mellitus and who are not being treated to reduce blood pressure or lipids [SIGN, 2017], [PHE, 2020].
  • The NICE guideline development committee acknowledged that the NHS Health Check programme (including a CVD risk assessment) is recommended every five years and that age was the most significant CVD risk factor driving any transition to treatment. Multiple determinations of individual CVD risk factors at any single time point improve the accuracy of risk assessment, repeated risk assessments (such as annual checks) were not likely to be clinically useful given the errors involved in the process. However, any significant changes in family history or knowledge of family history might necessitate a repeat of risk assessment [NICE, 2023a].

How should I interpret and communicate the estimated CVD risk score?

  • QRISK calculates a 10-year estimated risk and not a lifetime risk as estimated by another risk calculator, QRISK3-lifetime.
    • Consider using a lifetime risk tool such as QRISK3-lifetime to inform discussions on CVD risk and to motivate lifestyle changes, particularly for people with a 10-year QRISK3 score less than 10%, and people under 40 who have CVD risk factors.
  • The QRISK risk score is expressed as a percentage. For example, if a person has a 20% estimated risk, the following kind of phrases may be useful:
    • This means that you have a 20 in 100 chance (2 in 10 chance) of developing a cardiovascular disease CVD (CVD) within 10 years (angina, myocardial infarction, transient ischaemic attack, stroke or peripheral arterial disease.) 
    • In other words, in this example, 2 in 10 people with the same risk factors will develop CVD within the next 10 years.
    • The score is calculated based on outcomes in groups of people with risk factors for CVD and is therefore not designed to predict individual outcomes.
  • Be aware that the risk score is an estimate — standard CVD risk scores underestimate risks in people who have additional risk because of underlying medical conditions or treatments. This can include people:
    • Treated for HIV.
    • Taking medicines that can cause dyslipidaemia (for example, immunosuppressants). 
    • With hypertriglyceridaemia (>4.5 mmol/L).
    • Already taking antihypertensive or have recently given up smoking — use clinical judgement to decide on further treatment of risk factors in people who are below the CVD risk threshold for treatment.
    • With severe mental illness.
    • With autoimmune disorders and other systemic inflammatory disorders.
  • Offer information about the person's absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and about the benefits and harms of an intervention over a 10-year period — use jargon-free language to communicate information on risk. If technical terms are used, explain them clearly. This information should present: 
    • Individualised risk and benefit scenarios. 
    • The absolute risk of events numerically and use appropriate diagrams and text. For example, the QRISK website provides a 'smiley face' graphical image on completion of the assessment.
  • When discussing CVD risk, also consider that:
    • Many risk factors have a continuous relationship to the risk of developing CVD rather than a yes/no outcome. Therefore, consider using terms such as 'risk assessment' and 'risk reduction' rather than terms such as 'screening' or 'positive or negative for a risk,' which suggest an all-or-nothing effect.
    • People's values, preferences, and attitudes to risk vary widely and may need to be explored when discussing lifestyle and treatment decisions.
    • Everyone is at risk. Just because a person has a low risk does not mean they have no risk.
    • Most people, if not all, can reduce their risk by changes in lifestyle and, where relevant, with drug treatment.

Basis for recommendation

These recommendations are based on the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification [NICE, 2023a], a handbook commissioned by the UK National Screening Committee The Handbook for Vascular Risk Assessment, Risk Reduction and Risk Management [UKNSC, 2012], and a prospective open cohort study Development and validation of QRISK3 risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study [Hippisley-Cox, 2017].

Being aware that the risk score is an estimate
  • NICE advises that risk score is an estimate and standard cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores will underestimate risk in people who have additional risk because of underlying medical conditions or treatments, including people [NICE, 2023a]:
    • Treated for HIV.
    • Taking medicines to treat CVD risk factors, or taking medicines that can cause dyslipidaemia, such as immunosuppressant drugs.
    • Who have recently stopped smoking.
    • With severe mental illness (a diagnosis of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder or other psychoses).
    • Autoimmune disorders, and other systemic inflammatory disorders.
    • With hypertriglyceridaemia (>4.5 mmol/L).
  • QRISK3 now incorporates additional risk factors in the algorithm, including [NICE, 2023a; Hippisley-Cox, 2017]:
    • Regular oral corticosteroid use.
    • Systemic lupus erythematosus.
    • Use of atypical antipsychotics.
    • Migraine.
    • Erectile dysfunction.
    • Diagnosis of severe mental illness. The NICE guideline committee noted that the group of people with severe mental illness used to develop and validate QRISK3 included a high proportion of people with severe and moderate depression. Informed by their clinical experience and expert opinion, the NICE committee highlight that people with moderate to severe depression are not considered to have as great an increased risk of CVD as people with schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and other psychoses. It was therefore recognised that QRISK3 may underestimate CVD risk for people with schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and other psychoses.
  • NICE advises that risk scores need to be used in conjunction with clinical judgement [NICE, 2023a].
Communicating CVD risk
  • A systematic review and meta-analysis combined data from 62 trials investigating the benefits of communicating quantified estimates of CVD risk to at-risk individuals. The meta-analysis demonstrated improved accuracy of risk perception for the person at-risk, slightly improved CVD risk scores at 6 to 12 months of follow-up, increased self-reported dietary modification, intention to medication commencement or ongoing medication adherence. However, there were no measurable improvements in smoking cessation or physical activity [Bakhit, 2024].
  • These findings contrast slightly with those provided by a  Cochrane systematic review [Karmali, 2017], which assessed the effects of evaluating and providing CVD risk scores in adults without prevalent CVD, on cardiovascular outcomes, risk factor levels, preventive medication prescribing, and health behaviours. The review was unable to form a firm conclusion about the effectiveness of providing CVD risk scores in primary CVD prevention. It found that providing CVD risk scores may increase lipid-lowering and blood pressure-lowering medication prescribing in higher risk people and may have a small effect on reducing CVD risk factor levels. However, there was insufficient high-quality evidence to determine whether this translated into improved CVD outcomes.

Scenario: Management of people with an estimated CVD risk less than 10%

From age 18 years onwards.

How should I manage people with a CVD risk of less than 10%?

  • For people with an estimated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk score of less than 10% using the QRISK assessment tool:
    • Advise that although the risk is low, further reductions can often still be achieved. 
    • Offer advice on any relevant lifestyle factors that can be improved. 
    • Consider reviewing any relevant comorbidities that may not be optimally treated. 
    • Advise that a further risk assessment should be considered in 5 years. 
    • Consider using a lifetime risk tool such as QRISK3-lifetime to inform discussions on CVD risk and to motivate lifestyle changes. 
  • Consider principles that may help a person to adopt a healthy lifestyle:
    • Find out what they know or have already been told about their risk of developing CVD and how they feel about it. 
    • Exploring their beliefs about what determines future health.
    • Assess their readiness, concerns, and confidence to make any changes to their lifestyle.
    • Acknowledge that changing lifelong habits can be difficult and that a gradual, sustained change is often more permanent than a rapid change. 
    • Be supportive of every improvement in lifestyle.
    • Where relevant, engage support from their family.
    • Accept that some people need support for a long time and that repeated efforts to encourage and maintain lifestyle change may be necessary. 
  • Consider treatment with atorvastatin 20 mg for the primary prevention of CVD even if the person's 10-year QRISK3 score is less than 10%, where:
    • The person has an informed preference for taking a statin.
    • There is concern that CVD risk may have been underestimated by the QRISK3 calculation.

Basis for recommendation

These recommendations are based on the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification [NICE, 2023a], Public Health England NHS Health Check best practice guidance [PHE, 2020], the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice [ESC, 2022], an executive summary of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 2019 Guideline on the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease [Arnett, 2019] , a clinical practice statement from the American Society for Preventive Cardiology (ASPC) Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk assessment [Wong, 2022], and a handbook commissioned by the UK National Screening Committee The Handbook for Vascular Risk Assessment, Risk Reduction and Risk Management [UKNSC, 2012].

Considering statin treatment in people with a QRISK3 score less than 10%
  • NICE recommends that treatment with atorvastatin 20 mg for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) should not be ruled out because the person's 10-year QRISK3 score is lower than 10% if they have an informed preference for taking a statin or there is concern that their risk may be underestimated [NICE, 2023a].
  • SIGN advises that some people may have extreme values for single risk factors, and although CVD risk assessment tools take several risk factors into account, possession of a ‘lighthouse’ risk may mandate intervention. Single risk factors in this range include total cholesterol ≥8 mmol/l or elevated blood pressure (≥160 mm Hg systolic or ≥100 mm Hg diastolic, or lesser degrees of hypertension with associated target organ damage) [SIGN, 2017].
  • Guidelines from the ACC/AHA and the ASPC recommend that relevant risk enhancing factors should be considered in shared decision making discussions around the use of preventative interventions (for example, statin therapy) in adults identified to be at borderline risk of CVD [Arnett, 2019; Wong, 2022]. These include:
    • A family history of premature atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).
    • Primary hypercholesterolaemia.
    • Metabolic syndrome.
    • Chronic kidney disease.
    • Chronic inflammatory conditions.
    • History of premature menopause (before age 40 years) or history of pregnancy-associated conditions that increase later ASCVD risk such as pre-eclampsia.
    • High risk race/ethnicity.
    • Lipid/biomarker results (where measured) including primary hypertriglyceridaemia, elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, lipoprotein A, apolipoprotein B-100, or a low ankle brachial index (<0.9).
  • Additional female specific risk-enhancing factors may also include [Wong, 2022; Mehta, 2023]:
    • Early menarche (before age 10-11 years) and late menarche (after age 17 years).
    • Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS).
    • Oestrogen containing oral contraceptive use.
    • Infertility.
    • Grand multiparity (more than 4 to 5 live births).

What lifestyle advice should I give to help reduce the risk of CVD?

  • Give lifestyle advice to all people who have had a cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment, regardless of their risk score. 
  • Advise that most people, if not all, will be able to reduce whatever risk they have of developing CVD by relevant changes to lifestyle — the three most important modifiable and causal CVD risk factors are smoking, hypertension and abnormal lipids.
  • Advise smokers to stop and non-smokers to avoid passive smoking. 
    • Offer support for people who want to stop smoking and include referral to an NHS Stop Smoking Service. For more information, see the CKS topic on Smoking cessation.
  • Advise weight loss if the person is overweight or obese: 
    • Offer appropriate advice and support to help them work towards a healthy weight (for example, achieving and maintaining a weight loss target of 3 kg).
    • If obese, also assess for symptoms of sleep apnoea, and treat if appropriate — for more information, see the CKS topics on Obesity and Obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome.
  • Advise the person to adopt a diet that helps to reduce CVD risk, including:
    • Eating: 
      • Unsalted nuts, seeds and legumes — at least 4 to 5 portions per week (one portion is about a handful or about 30 g).
      • Fish — at least two portions per week, including a portion of oily fish (pregnant women should limit their oily fish intake to no more than two portions per week and avoid marlin, shark, and swordfish).
      • Fruit and vegetables — at least 5 portions per day.
      • Fibre — 30-45 g per day (choose wholegrain varieties of starchy foods).
    • Reducing:  
      • Sugar and food products containing refined sugars, including fructose.
      • Saturated fat — total fat intake should be 30% or less of total energy intake, and saturated fat should be 7% or less of total energy, and where possible saturated fats are replaced by mono-unsaturated and polyunsaturated fats.
      • Salt — it should be less than 6 g per day (it should not be added at the table, and processed foods should be kept to a minimum).
    • Increasing mono-unsaturated fat intake with olive oil or rapeseed oil or spreads based on these oils, and to use them in food preparation.
      • Note: Dietary supplements, including omega-3 capsules, plant sterols (sitosterol or sitostanol) or supplemented foods, are not recommended as there is no good evidence that they reduce CVD risk. People with chronic kidney disease, type 1 or type 2 diabetes should avoid plant sterols and stenols.
  • Advise the person to keep alcohol consumption within the recommended limits: 
    • For men and women: no more than 14 units per week (spread over 3 days or more).
    • Having at least two alcohol-free days per week.
    • Avoiding binge drinking and intoxication.
    • If alcohol use seems to be a problem, it should be specifically addressed — for more information, see the CKS topic on Alcohol - problem drinking.
  • Advise the person to be physically active and to avoid prolonged sedentary behaviour, including:
    • At least 150 minutes per week of moderate intensity aerobic activity (to the point of slight breathlessness), or at least 75 minutes per week of vigorous intensity aerobic activity, or a mix of moderate and vigorous aerobic activity. 
      • Encourage people who cannot manage moderate intensity physical activity because of comorbidity, medical conditions or personal circumstances to exercise to their maximum safe capacity. 
      • Note: activity in bouts of 10 minutes or more is as effective as longer bouts so long as the total per week is achieved. Moderate intensity activities include those that can be incorporated into everyday life such as brisk walking, using stairs, and cycling. 
    • Muscle-strengthening activities on two or more days a week that work all major muscle groups (legs, hips, back, abdomen, chest, shoulders, and arms).

Basis for recommendation

These recommendations are based on the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification [NICE, 2023a], Public Health England (PHE) NHS Health Check best practice guidance [PHE, 2020], the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice [ESC, 2022], an executive summary of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 2019 Guideline on the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease [Arnett, 2019], the UK Chief Medical Officers' low risk drinking guidelines [DH, 2016], the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) guideline Risk estimation and the prevention of cardiovascular disease [SIGN, 2017], and Cochrane systematic reviews.

Dietary advice
  • Recommendations are based on NICE guidance which promote the NHS eat well guide [NICE, 2023a].
  • Evidence from Cochrane systematic reviews support the recommendations in the NICE guidance or NHS eat well guide:
    • There is high‐certainty evidence that increasing long‐chain omega‐3 intake does not decrease  cardiovascular events, moderate‐certainty evidence that it also has no effect on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality or stroke, and low-certainty evidence that it has does not decrease arrhythmia [Abdelhamid, 2020]. NICE recommends that omega 3 fatty acid compounds should not be offered to prevent CVD, unless icosapent ethyl is used as described in the icosapent ethyl technology appraisal guidance [NICE, 2023a].
    • In overweight and obese people without type 2 diabetes, there is moderate-certainty evidence that low-carbohydrate weight-reducing diets compared with balanced-carbohydrate weight-reducing diets results in little to no difference in body weight (at both 3 to 8.5 months and 1 to 2 years), as well as little to no difference in diastolic blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol over 1 to 2 years. In overweight and obese people with type 2 diabetes, there is moderate-certainty evidence that low-carbohydrate weight-reducing diets compared with balanced-carbohydrate weight-reducing diets results in little to no difference in body weight (at both 3 to 6 months and 1 to 2 years), as well as little to no difference in diastolic blood pressure, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol over 1 to 2 years [Naude, 2022].
    • A single study provides low-certainty evidence of little to no effect of following a Mediterranean diet plus supplemental extra‐virgin olive oil or tree nuts in comparison with a low-fat diet on CVD mortality over 4.8 years. However, the study did provide moderate-certainty evidence for a reduction in the number of strokes and instances of peripheral arterial disease. Regarding CVD risk factors, studies comparing a Mediterranean diet with no or minimal dietary interventions provided moderate‐quality evidence for a reduction in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, but only low or very-low quality evidence of little or no effect on LDL or HDL cholesterol or triglycerides. Studies comparing a Mediterranean diet with another dietary intervention moderate‐quality evidence of a possible small reduction in LDL cholesterol and triglycerides, with moderate or low‐quality evidence of little or no effect on total or HDL cholesterol, or blood pressure [Rees, 2019].
  • Evidence is provided by several Cochrane systematic reviews relating to dietary alterations for CVD primary prevention purposes which do not feature in the NICE guidelines or the NHS eat well guide:
    • Data were combined from 21 randomised controlled trials investigating the impact of altering added sugar intake. No studies described the impact on cardiovascular events. The pooled data provided only low‐certainty evidence that a high-added sugar intake may be associated with small increases in systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and triglycerides. There was no measurable difference in mean LDL cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol or fasting plasma glucose [Bergwall, 2022].
    • Data were combined from 26 randomised controlled trials investigating the benefits of using low sodium salt substitutes (LSSS; mainly potassium‐containing salts). The pooled data provided moderate-certainty evidence that LSSS likely slightly reduces both systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and slightly reduces non-fatal stroke (20 fewer events/100,000 person years), non-fatal acute coronary syndrome (150 fewer events/100,000 person years) and cardiovascular mortality (180 fewer events/100,000 person years), whilst slightly increasing blood potassium concentrations when compared with regular salt [Brand, 2022].
    • Comparing vegan dietary interventions with no or minimal dietary interventions, there was moderate-certainty evidence that a vegan diet possibly led to a small reduction in total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol, a very small decrease in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and a very small increase in triglyceride levels (both opposite direction to that expected). Comparing vegan dietary interventions with another dietary intervention for primary prevention of CVD, there was moderate-certainty evidence that the vegan dietary intervention probably had little or no effect of on LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol or triglyceride levels, with a very uncertain effect on systolic or diastolic blood pressure. These data provide insufficient information to draw conclusions about the effects of vegan dietary interventions on CVD risk factors [Rees, 2021].
    • Low‐certainty evidence suggests that a gluten‐reduced or gluten‐free diet compared with no intervention or a usual diet may not be associated with cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, but that a lower gluten intake may be associated with a slightly increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Very low‐certainty evidence suggests that it is unclear whether gluten intake affects systolic or diastolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol levels, or BMI [Schmucker, 2022].

How should I manage comorbidities which are associated with increased risk of CVD?

  • Other medical conditions are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) — where possible, treatment should be optimized to reduce their effect on CVD risk, these include:

Basis for recommendation

These recommendations are based on the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification [NICE, 2023a], the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice [ESC, 2022], the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) guideline Risk estimation and the prevention of cardiovascular disease [SIGN, 2017], and an executive summary of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 2019 Guideline on the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease [Arnett, 2019].

Scenario: Management of people with an estimated risk of 10% or more

From age 18 years onwards.

How should I manage people with a CVD risk of 10% or more?

  • Before offering statin treatment for primary prevention: 
    • Use the clinical findings, lipid profile and family history to judge the likelihood of a familial lipid disorder — for more information on diagnosing or excluding familial hypercholesterolaemia as a cause of dyslipidaemia, see the CKS topic on Hypercholesterolaemia - familial. 
    • Exclude possible secondary causes of dyslipidaemia (such as excess alcohol, uncontrolled diabetes, hypothyroidism, liver disease, and nephrotic syndrome).
    • Discuss the benefit of lifestyle modifications and optimize the management of all other modifiable CVD risk factors, including any relevant comorbidities that may not be optimally treated.
      • Offer the opportunity to reassess CVD risk again after they have tried to change their lifestyle. 
      • Recognise that some people may need support to change their lifestyle — to help, refer them to programmes such as exercise referral schemes or smoking cessation services. For more information, see the CKS topic on Smoking cessation
  • Offer statin treatment after risk assessment if lifestyle modification is ineffective or inappropriate.
    • Discuss the benefits and risks of taking a lipid modification therapy, taking into account additional factors such as comorbidities, potential benefits from lifestyle interventions, the person's preferences, polypharmacy, general frailty and life expectancy.
    • Offer atorvastatin 20 mg daily if the person decides to take this and there are no contraindications — for more information on starting statin treatment, see the CKS topic on Lipid modification - CVD prevention.

Basis for recommendation

These recommendations are based on the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification [NICE, 2023a], and the Public Health England NHS Health Check best practice guidance [PHE, 2020].

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk threshold
  • NICE has determined that the treatment threshold for primary prevention of CVD is a CVD risk of 10% as assessed using QRISK [NICE, 2023a].
  • However, in the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) guideline Risk estimation and the prevention of cardiovascular disease, this threshold remains at 20% [SIGN, 2017].  
    • SIGN states that while the NICE approach identifies the proportion of the population which is cost effective to treat, it is less clear how the additional workload was accounted for within primary care to implement the policy, and the societal ramifications of the threshold effectively (placing almost all people in England and Wales above 65 years of age at high risk of CVD) were not explored.
    • In Scotland, almost 95% of individuals are at 10% or greater risk of a cardiovascular event within 10 years by the age of 60–64. Implementing this threshold in Scotland would increase the total number of people eligible for preventive treatment by around 70% to over 1.3 million.

What lifestyle advice should I give to help reduce the risk of CVD?

How should I manage comorbidities which are associated with increased risk of CVD?

What drug treatments should I offer for the primary prevention of CVD?

  • Decide whether to start statin therapy after an informed discussion with the person about the risks and benefits of statin treatment, taking into account additional factors such as potential benefits from lifestyle changes, informed patient preference, comorbidities, polypharmacy, general frailty and life expectancy.
  • Offer atorvastatin 20 mg a day (unless contraindicated) for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) to people (including those with type 2 diabetes) with an estimated CVD risk of 10% or more calculated using the QRISK3 assessment tool.
  • For people: 
    • Aged 85 years or older (beyond the QRISK range for inclusion) — consider offering atorvastatin 20 mg, which may be of benefit in reducing the risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction. But, take into account factors that may make treatment inappropriate, such as comorbidities, polypharmacy, general frailty, and life expectancy.
    • With chronic kidney disease — consider offering atorvastatin 20 mg, dose adjustments may be required in people who do not achieve lipid targets for primary prevention of CVD (the use of higher doses should be discussed with a renal specialist if eGFR is less than 30 ml per minute per 1.73 m2). For information on how to estimate and manage CVD risk, see the CKS topic on Chronic kidney disease. 
    • With type 1 diabetes mellitus — consider offering statin treatment in all adults.
      • Offer atorvastatin 20 mg to adults aged over 40 years, or who have had diabetes for more than 10 years, or who have established nephropathy, or have other CVD risk factors.
      • Consider atorvastatin 20 mg for adults aged less than 40 years with type 1 diabetes, including those who have had diabetes for 10 years or less.
      • For more information on how to manage CVD risk, see the CKS topic on Diabetes - type 1.
    • With hypercholesterolaemia — for more information, see the CKS topic on Hypercholesterolaemia - familial. 
  • A target reduction in non-HDL cholesterol of >40% is recommended for the primary prevention of CVD. For information on assessing response to statin treatment, including how to follow up a person after the initiation of lipid modification therapy for primary prevention, see the CKS topic on Lipid modification - CVD prevention.
  • Offer antihypertensive drug treatment for the primary prevention of CVD, if appropriate:
  • Do not routinely offer aspirin for the primary prevention of CVD:
    • Consider aspirin 75 mg in people at high risk of CVD (>20%) where there is no clear increased risk of bleeding (for example, GI bleeding, peptic ulcer disease, concurrent use of medications that increase bleeding risk).
    • People without bleeding risk factors with a 10-year risk of CVD of more than 20% should be given low-dose aspirin, and people with a risk 10–20% should be considered potentially eligible. This is an off-license use of aspirin in these higher-risk groups of people. 

Basis for recommendation

These recommendations are based on the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification [NICE, 2023a] and Hypertension in adults: diagnosis and management [NICE, 2023b], the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice [ESC, 2022], an ESC position paper Aspirin therapy in primary cardiovascular disease prevention [Halvorsen, 2014], an executive summary of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 2019 Guideline on the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease [Arnett, 2019], the British and Irish Hypertension Society (BIHS) Statement on the use of aspirin  [BIHS, 2017], and the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) guideline Risk estimation and the prevention of cardiovascular disease [SIGN, 2017]. 

Offering statins to people with a CVD risk of 10% or more
  • NICE based its recommendation on 34 studies on statin treatments [NICE, 2023a].
  • Evidence from a cost–utility analysis carried out for NICE indicated that it is cost-effective to treat people with a QRISK3 risk of 10% or more with atorvastatin 20mg.
    • CKS acknowledges that the threshold for offering statin treatment (a 10% or more 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease [CVD]) is controversial. Previous guidelines had used a 20% threshold, but the cost-benefit analysis performed for the current NICE guideline showed that this threshold should be lowered to 10% if a person wishes to take a statin after an informed discussion.
    • Much debate in the medical and lay press ensued from this recommendation. For example, see the open letter written to NICE from a group of leading doctors raising concerns about the guidance on statins and a BMJ leader in 2014 which also highlights some of the concerns. See also the response from NICE about the criticisms. Further to this, see an open letter sent from a group of leading doctors to the Health Select Committee of the House of Commons in October 2014, and the response to this letter from Professor Haslam, Chair of NICE.
  • NICE recommends aiming for a greater than 40% reduction in non-HDL cholesterol for the primary prevention of CVD [NICE, 2023a].
Aspirin for primary prevention of CVD
  • Aspirin is not recommended for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease [SIGN, 2017]. 
  • Aspirin use, in general, should be restricted to people with a prior history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) [BIHS, 2017].  
    • Aspirin may be considered beneficial for primary prevention if an individual’s future risk of stroke or heart attack is higher than average.
    • An accurate quantitative assessment of CVD risk is essential before prescribing aspirin for individuals in the primary prevention of CVD, where the evidence for benefit versus harm is very limited.
  • Antiplatelet therapy is not routinely recommended in people who do not have CVD, due to the increased risk of major bleeding [ESC, 2022; Arnett, 2019].
    • Several meta-analyses have not described reductions in all-cause or CVD related mortality with aspirin use in people without CVD, but have described increased risks of major bleeding, intracranial bleeding,  and major gastrointestinal bleeding, though no clear increase in the risk of fatal bleeding [ESC, 2022].
    • However, in a position paper, an ESC working group suggested that aspirin should be considered in the primary prevention of CVD in people at a high risk of major cardiovascular events — more than 2 per 100 subject-years, provided there is no clear evidence of increased risk of bleeding (GI bleeding or peptic ulcer disease, no concurrent use of other medications that increase bleeding risk) [Halvorsen, 2014].  
      • In the absence of such conditions, people with a 10-year risk of major CV of more than 20% should be given low-dose aspirin, and people with a risk 10–20% should be considered potentially eligible. This is an off-license use of aspirin for primary prevention in this higher risk group. 
Statin use in the elderly
  • No trials of initiating statin therapy have specifically recruited the very elderly (people over the age of 85) and many trials define the elderly as those aged over 65 years [SIGN, 2017]. 
    • One meta-analysis of 8 trials including 24,674 patients aged 65 years or over (average age 73) without established CVD concluded that statins reduce the incidence of MI (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.85) and stroke (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.93) but do not significantly prolong survival. Similarly, an individual patient data analysis of major statin trials has confirmed reductions in first major cardiovascular events of 22% in those aged 66–75 and 16% in those aged over 75 per 1 mmol/l reduction in LDL cholesterol [Savarese, 2013].
    • A retrospective population-based cohort study utilised primary care healthcare record data to assess the risk of all-cause mortality in those aged ≥60 years receiving statins, with updated survival predictions every six months from age 60 to 85 years. A consistent reduction in mortality was observed among those receiving statins from age 65 years onwards, and the reduction increased by age (hazards ratios were 0.76, 0.71, 0.68, 0.63 and 0.54 for those aged 65, 70, 75, 80 and 85 years), providing evidence to support statin use in the elderly [Gitsels, 2021].
  • There is little reliable evidence regarding the clinical effects of the cessation of statin therapy in the elderly [SIGN, 2017]. 
    • However, one RCT investigating the safety and benefit of stopping statins in people aged on average 74.1 years, with advanced, life-limiting illness, found that stopping statins is safe and may be associated with benefits including improved quality of life (QoL). The proportion of participants in the discontinuation versus continuation groups who died within 60 days was not significantly different (23.8% v 20.3%, 90% CI 3.5% to 10.5%) and did not meet the non-inferiority end point. Total QoL was better for the group discontinuing statin therapy (mean McGill QoL score 7.11 v 6.85, p=0.04). Few participants experienced cardiovascular events (13 in the discontinuation group, 11 in the continuation group).
  • Although evidence has strengthened the role of LDL-cholesterol as a risk factor for CVD in older people (aged 70 years or over), and there is no evidence indicating a decreasing effectiveness of statins with increasing age, evidence supporting the effectiveness of statins for primary prevention purposes in older people (aged over 70 years of age) is lacking [ESC, 2022].
    • Where statin treatment is being considered, the potential for successful lifestyle related risk factor modification, frailty, estimated lifetime benefit, comorbidities, polypharmacy, muscle symptoms and the person's individual treatment preferences also deserve to be taken into account.
  • In the elderly, the decision to start statin therapy should be based on 10-year CVD risk estimation, life expectancy, and QoL [SIGN, 2017]. Age alone is not a contraindication to drug therapy [SIGN, 2017; ESC, 2022].
  • Initiation of statin treatment for primary prevention may be considered in older people (≥70 years) at high risk (or above) of CVD. It is recommended that statins are started at a low dose and carefully titrated to the level of desired response in people with renal impairment and/or the potential for drug interactions [ESC, 2022].
Antihypertensive use
  • There is high quality evidence that drug treatment of hypertension reduces CVD risk where the systolic blood pressure is >140 mmHg [ESC, 2022].
  • The ESC guidelines recommend antihypertensive treatment where systolic blood pressure is >160 mmHg, because the lifelong benefit of reducing blood pressure in these people is almost universally high, and the risk of hypertension mediated organ damage (resulting in other morbidities) will also be reduced [ESC, 2022].
  • Decisions about antihypertensive drug use should include the possibility of improving blood pressure by successful alteration of modifiable risk factors, the estimated benefit of treatment, the person's frailty, any comorbidities and life expectancy, and the person's treatment preferences [ESC, 2022].
  • NICE guidance recommends that antihypertensive drug treatment (in addition to lifestyle advice) should be offered to adults of any age with persistent stage 2 hypertension (clinic blood pressure of 160/100 mmHg or higher [but less than 180/120 mmHg] and subsequent ambulatory daytime average or home blood pressure average of 150/95 mmHg or higher), and to adults under 80 with persistent stage 1 hypertension (clinic blood pressure ranging from 140/90 mmHg to 159/99 mmHg and subsequent ambulatory daytime average or home blood pressure average ranging from 135/85 mmHg to 149/94 mmHg) where the person also has target organ damage, established cardiovascular disease, renal disease, diabetes or an estimated 10-year risk of CVD of 10% or more [NICE, 2023b].
Statin, antihypertensive and aspirin combination therapy
  • Fixed dose combination (FDC) therapy, consisting of at least two antihypertensive medications and a statin with or without aspirin, has been shown to decrease cardiovascular events in both primary and secondary prevention [Dagenais, 2023].
  • An individual level data meta-analysis (combining data from the Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation-3 [HOPE-3], PolyIran and The International Polycap Study-3 [TIPS-3] trials) assessed the impact of FDC strategies with and without aspirin on cardiovascular events, in different age groups. In these studies, participants at intermediate risk (17.7% mean 10-year Framingham cardiovascular risk score) were randomised to FDC therapy with 5 year follow-up [Dagenais, 2023].
  • Combination of the individual study results in the meta-analysis demonstrated a decrease in risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke or revascularisation with FDC therapy (37% risk reduction), with the largest reductions in risk in those aged 60 to 65 or ≥65, and greater benefits observed with the addition of aspirin (54% risk reduction in both age groups) [Dagenais, 2023].
  • Comparatively, the FDC therapy appeared to be well-tolerated. There was a statistically significant increase in dizziness among those <60 years old who received FDC therapy in comparison with the control group, but this difference was not observed among older study populations. There were no statistically significant differences in bleeding events for those randomised to receive aspirin [Dagenais, 2023].

Supporting evidence

This CKS topic is largely based on the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification [NICE, 2023a], Public Health England (PHE) NHS Health Check best practice guidance [PHE, 2020], the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice [ESC, 2022], a handbook commissioned by the UK National Screening Committee (NSC) Handbook for Vascular Risk Assessment, Risk Reduction and Risk Management [UKNSC, 2012], and the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) guideline Risk estimation and the prevention of cardiovascular disease [SIGN, 2017]. The rationale for individual recommendations is outlined in the relevant basis for recommendation sections of the topic.

How this topic was developed

This section briefly describes the processes used in developing and updating this topic. Further details on the full process can be found in the About Us section and on the Clarity Informatics website.

Search strategy

A literature search was conducted to identify evidence-based guidelines, UK policy and systematic reviews published since the last revision of this topic. 

Search dates

February 2019 - March 2024

Key search terms

The terms listed below are the core search terms that were used for EBSCOhost MEDLINE (searched 14th February 2019). These were combined with filters to identify guidelines, systematic reviews and primary care relevant literature in EBSCOhost MEDLINE. The strategy was adapted for The Cochrane Library databases. 

S8    S3 AND S7 
S7    S4 OR S5 OR S6 
S6    TI ( risk or primary prevention ) 
S5    (MH "Primary Prevention+") 
S4    (MH "Risk Assessment+") 
S3    S1 OR S2 
S2    TI ( (CVD or cardiovascular disease or CHD or (coronary N2 disease*) or atherosclero*) ) 
S1    (MH "Cardiovascular Diseases+") 

Sources of guidelines

Sources of systematic reviews and meta-analyses

  • The Cochrane Library:
    • Systematic reviews
    • Protocols
    • Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects
  • Medline (with systematic review filter)
  • EMBASE (with systematic review filter)

Sources of health technology assessments and economic appraisals

Sources of randomized controlled trials

  • The Cochrane Library:
    • Central Register of Controlled Trials
  • Medline (with randomized controlled trial filter)
  • EMBASE (with randomized controlled trial filter)

Sources of evidence based reviews and evidence summaries

Sources of national policy

Patient experiences

Sources of medicines information

The following sources are used by CKS pharmacists and are not necessarily searched by CKS information specialists for all topics. Some of these resources are not freely available and require subscriptions to access content.

Stakeholder engagement

Our policy

The external review process is an essential part of CKS topic development. Consultation with a wide range of stakeholders provides quality assurance of the topic in terms of:

  • Clinical accuracy.
  • Consistency with other providers of clinical knowledge for primary care.
  • Accuracy of implementation of national guidance (in particular NICE guidelines).
  • Usability.

Principles of the consultation process

  • The process is inclusive and any individual may participate.
  • To participate, an individual must declare whether they have any competing interests or not. If they do not declare whether or not they have competing interests, their comments will not be considered.
  • Comments received after the deadline will be considered, but they may not be acted upon before the clinical topic is issued onto the website.
  • Comments are accepted in any format that is convenient to the reviewer, although an electronic format is encouraged.
  • External reviewers are not paid for commenting on the draft topics.
  • Discussion with an individual or an organization about the CKS response to their comments is only undertaken in exceptional circumstances (at the discretion of the Clinical Editor or Editorial Steering Group).
  • All reviewers are thanked and offered a letter acknowledging their contribution for the purposes of appraisal/revalidation.
  • All reviewers are invited to be acknowledged on the website. All reviewers are given the opportunity to feedback about the external review process, enabling improvements to be made where appropriate.

Stakeholders

  • Key stakeholders identified by the CKS team are invited to comment on draft CKS topics. Individuals and organizations can also register an interest to feedback on a specific topic, or topics in a particular clinical area, through the Getting involved section of the Clarity Informatics website.
  • Stakeholders identified from the following groups are invited to review draft topics:
    • Experts in the topic area.
    • Professional organizations and societies (for example, Royal Colleges).
    • Patient organizations, Clarity has established close links with groups such as Age UK and the Alzheimer’s Society specifically for their input into new topic development, review of current topic content and advice on relevant areas of expert knowledge.
    • Guideline development groups where the topic is an implementation of a guideline.
    • The British National Formulary team.
    • The editorial team that develop MeReC Publications.
  • Reviewers are provided with clear instructions about what to review, what comments are particularly helpful, how to submit comments, and declaring interests.

Patient engagement

Clarity Informatics has enlisted the support and involvement of patients and lay persons at all stages in the process of creating the content which include:

  • Topic selection
  • Scoping of topic
  • Selection of clinical scenarios
  • First draft internal review
  • Second draft internal review
  • External review
  • Final draft and pre-publication

Our lay and patient involvement includes membership on the editorial steering group, contacting expert patient groups, organizations and individuals.

Evidence exclusion criteria

Our policy

Scoping a literature search, and reviewing the evidence for CKS is a methodical and systematic process that is carried out by the lead clinical author for each topic. Relevant evidence is gathered in order that the clinical author can make fully informed decisions and recommendations. It is important to note that some evidence may be excluded for a variety of reasons. These reasons may be applied across all CKS topics or may be specific to a given topic.

Studies identified during literature searches are reviewed to identify the most appropriate information to author a CKS topic, ensuring any recommendations are based on the best evidence. We use the principles of the GRADE and PICOT approaches to assess the quality of published research. We use the principles of AGREE II to assess the quality of published guidelines.

Standard exclusions for scoping literature:

  • Animal studies
  • Original research is not written in English

Possible exclusions for reviewed literature:

  • Sample size too small or study underpowered
  • Bias evident or promotional literature
  • Population not relevant
  • Intervention/treatment not relevant
  • Outcomes not relevant
  • Outcomes have no clear evidence of clinical effectiveness
  • Setting not relevant
  • Not relevant to UK
  • Incorrect study type
  • Review article
  • Duplicate reference

Organizational, behavioural and financial barriers

Our policy

The CKS literature searches take into consideration the following concepts, which are discussed at the initial scoping of the topic.

  • Feasibility
    • Studies are selected depending on whether the intervention under investigation is available in the NHS and can be practically and safely undertaken in primary care.
  • Organizational and Financial Impact Analysis
  • Studies are selected and evaluated on whether the intervention under investigations may have an impact on local clinical service provision or national impact on cost for the NHS. The principles of clinical budget impact analysis are adhered to, evaluated and recorded by the author. The following factors are considered when making this assessment and analysis.
    • Eligible population
    • Current interventions
    • Likely uptake of new intervention or recommendation
    • Cost of the current or new intervention mix
    • Impact on other costs
    • Condition-related costs
    • In-direct costs and service impacts
    • Time dependencies
  • Cost-effectiveness or cost-benefit analysis studies are identified where available. 

We also evaluate and include evidence from NICE accredited sources which provide economic evaluations of recommendations, such as NICE guidelines. When a recommended action may not be possible because of resource constraints, this is explicitly indicated to healthcare professionals by the wording of the CKS recommendation.

Declarations of interest

Our policy

Clarity Informatics requests that all those involved in the writing and reviewing of topics, and those involved in the external review process to declare any competing interests. Signed copies are securely held by Clarity Informatics and are available on request with the permission of the individual. A copy of the declaration of interest form which participants are asked to complete annually is also available on request. A brief outline of the declarations of interest policy is described here and full details of the policy is available on the Clarity Informatics website. Declarations of interests of the authors are not routinely published, however competing interests of all those involved in the topic update or development are listed below. Competing interests include:

  • Personal financial interests
  • Personal family interest
  • Personal non-financial interest
  • Non-personal financial gain or benefit

Although particular attention is given to interests that could result in financial gains or losses for the individual, competing interests may also arise from academic competition or for political, personal, religious, and reputational reasons. An individual is not obliged to seek out knowledge of work done for, or on behalf of, the healthcare industry within the departments for which they are responsible if they would not normally expect to be informed.

Who should declare competing interests?

Any individual (or organization) involved in developing, reviewing, or commenting on clinical content, particularly the recommendations should declare competing interests. This includes the authoring team members, expert advisers, external reviewers of draft topics, individuals providing feedback on published topics, and Editorial Steering Group members. Declarations of interest are completed annually for authoring team and editorial steering group members, and are completed at the start of the topic update and development process for external stakeholders.

Competing interests declared for this topic:

None.

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